You know your loony ideas may not be so loony
after all when you see them echoed in the Great Newspaper of Our Times (the
GNoOT, more commonly known as “The New York Times”). Trying to educate myself
in the intellectual history of what I had settled on as the remedy for most of
capitalism evils I found much of the work done by Bruce Bartlett in there: Rethinking the idea of a basic income for all,
but only after seeing many of my concerns about the jobs that may never come
back also confirmed in a more recent article: After jobs dry up
The points touched in both articles will sound
familiar to any reader of this blog: the increase in automation within the
manufacturing sector, and advances in transportation and IT are increasingly
pointing towards an scenario where there may not be, after all, jobs for
everybody (unless you accept as a definition of job doing something for someone
that he himself does not want to do, but doesn’t require much skill or is especially
satisfying, so he would only accept to pay a pittance for it… so in a sense
there will always be jobs as shoe polisher, janitor, toilet scrubber, waiter
and the like, as those are the only activities for which there is a truly free
market –not requiring any qualification, so nobody can assert monopoly powers
over them or somehow constrict the offer, in which given the demanded salary is
low enough you can hope to always find “buyers” of labor power).
What is
up to us as a society is to decide what we do with the likely increasing
numbers of citizens (and non-citizens, a great worry of some of the writers in
the topic which we will have to come back to) that have been made redundant and
do not have neither the required skills nor the ability to acquire them that
the tightening labor market still demands, and that can at most hope to join
the labor force in the weakest position, to perform menial jobs with no
stability, no social recognition and no prospect of advancement. It is not
surprising that most find the idea utterly unappealing and are resorting to
different sorts of escapism (from the harmless, like videogames, through the mildly
self-destructive, like controlled substance abuse, to the full-blown psychopathic,
like armed robbery or drug smuggling) with the subsequent loss of social
capital and global impoverishment.
However, both Bartlett and Bennhold confuse
things a little bit, as they point to Milton Friedman’s negative tax returns
(NTR) as a precursor of the Universal Basic Income (UBI) I advocate, without
realizing there is a huge difference: the
NTR substitutes for the rent the perceiver is not able to win for him/herself,
whilst the UBI, as it name implies, is perceived by all the population (yup,
even the millionaires receive that comparatively little stipend from the State,
which of course does not even start to compensate the comparatively much bigger
amount that then is taken from then in the form of taxes). Is that important or
is it just hair splitting? As it happens, it is of enormous importance, as the
main problem the opponents of a UBI see is its negative impact in the
incentives to work, and that negative impact is a feature of NTR, but NOT of
UBI: consider this, you are a single male with barely any education, so all you
can expect from life is to earn the minimum to get by and put a roof over your
head and some food on the table. You can work a shitty job for that OR you can
just sit back and collect the checks the State send your way, as it is one or
the other. The moment you start working the size of the check starts shrinking,
so you have all the inconveniences of the job (from bearing a probably not too
brilliant himself boss to the diminished time to enjoy your meager pay) without
any of the advantages (the money you receive from it just compensates what you
were receiving anyway). No shit Sherlock social researchers found it strongly
disincentivized job seeking! But now think how it would work in the UBI
scenario: you receive your money from the state no matter what. You start
working in the lousy job, so whatever you get paid gets added to your previous
income, so you are definitely better off. If you just can not stand your job,
no biggie, you quit and revert to your previous income level; if you swallow
hard and keep going, you get the continuous reward of staying in an upper
income bracket (so in a sense this may still feed the “keeping up with the
Joneses” mentality we identified as a key problematic feature of capitalism,
which is not that good), and you can reevaluate as frequently as you want, as
the moment the balance between what you get from that job and what you have to
put in it gets too tilted towards the giving side and away from the taking you
can safely go back to your home, knowing your subsistence (and your family’s,
had you one) were guaranteed, without compromising your freedom on how to spend
your resources.
Now that particular canard has been debunked (I
strongly believe people would rather work in a society where a UBI has been
instituted, although they would work more freely and less stressfully) I think
it is time to articulate how the ideal society would look like, so we can then
analyze how can we get from here and now (very imperfect social order) to there
and then; in no particular order:
·
The
ideal society has to guarantee each citizen the maximum freedom compatible with
the freedoms of all the rest. A good starting point is the U.N. charter on
human rights, which already contemplates the freedom of the press, religious
practice, association (including family formation), political representation, movement
and occupation
·
An
acceptable mechanism (probably the only one) to coordinate and avoid conflict in the enjoyment of
material goods is the existence of robust property rights (so private property
and the possibility to freely alienate that property –which require a free
market so every proprietor can determine if he wants to buy or sell with
minimal intervention- is a necessary feature of the ideal society)
·
Note
that the “freedom of the market” is subordinated to respect for basic
individual freedoms. In order for that subordination to be achieved there is
unavoidably a certain amount of regulation (to eliminate externalities –for
example, I can not “freely” sell you electricity I produce as cheaply as
possible if everybody else has to unwillingly pay the price of a polluted air
or a degraded climate, and also to compensate for gross disparities of power or
information) that needs to be defined and enforced, which in turn requires an
institution capable of it (the legislative branch of the government, and the
judiciary to oversee the police required for the enforcement)
·
Now,
given the current level of technological advance and the admittance of markets,
there are still going to be areas where a single-payer (or even single-provider)
solution is going to produce overall better results (from the point of view of
the whole society), namely: defense, policing, healthcare, basic education,
research and development and basic infrastructures (hydraulic, transportation
and communications). As resources have to be pooled (via taxes) to provide for
those and allocation decisions to be taken, a third branch of government has to
be added to propose a budget and oversee its use
·
I
do not want to get too sidetracked by the discussion of how each branch of
government should be appointed (popular vote or direct designation by a
perpetual ruling elite) as the modern world gives us examples of both (the USA
elects judges, but they do not seem to reach systematically better decisions
than their European peers, which are designated and promoted in a
non-democratic way; the West elects both the executive and legislative
branches, whilst in China they are appointed within a ruling elite and for the
past decades they seem to have been making better decisions on how to
productively allocate the budget and set the right priorities for a sustained
economic development). I personally tend to favor democratic election as a way
to avoid corruption and the “bad emperor” problem identified by Fukuyama, but
sometimes I confess I’m utterly dismayed by the abysmal choices collectives
make…
·
Now,
once we have property rights, maximum freedom, markets for the exchange of most
goods and services, with a three branched government to police that market,
maintain the monopoly of violence to ensure an ordered society and provide
additional services that private initiative has historically shown to be no
good at, ¿what do we have different from Today’s predominant order? Well, a
tweak here and a tweak there, most of which are highly situation specific (for
example, the USA would benefit from severe restrictions in monetary contributions
to campaigns; Spain from a more independent judiciary; Greece from leaving the
Euro…), but one of which is as universal as it sounds: the system would be more
humane, more rewarding, more conductive to human flourishing, fairer and richer
if we guarantee a basic income to every person, from the cradle to the grave,
and then give them the freedom to add on top on that whatever their
entrepreneurship, initiative, desire for further improvement and drive
dictates.
So in the end there is not so much we have to
accomplish to get “from the here and now to the there and then”, just push to get
that UBI incorporated in some party’s platform in the West, and then have that
party elected. It doesn’t matter that much if it is a left leaning party or a
right leaning party (as both tend to, when in power, execute very similar
policies in every other respect). I do believe the system would work better
when it is spread to the whole world, under the auspices of a single governing
body (like the current U.N. but without any member having veto power), but
again that is not something I expect to see in my lifetime. To begin with, some
countries are much closer (and have already the tax base in place) to such an
arrangement, whilst others are light years away… so a more realistic scenario
is to push for it in a country that has the ideological basis in place
(Scandinavian Countries?) and hope that it sets a shining example (in terms of
quality of life, happiness of its inhabitants and economic development) that
attracts more and more countries to follow suit. I would expect the USofA to be
between the latest to adopt such an egalitarian social arrangement for a number
of reasons (their tax base, as we analyzed in this post: UBI cost in the USA,
would need a more significant expansion, and their entrenched special interest,
tinged with a racial component which is so far absent for most other mature
democracies, are much more refractory to giving anything at all to “those
people”, least of all what would enable them to lead meaningful lives without
begging or risking prison).
Now
there are two objections that have to be overcome, one mainly coming from the
left and the other from the right. From the left I would expect to hear how
this is not enough change, as it leaves the logic of the market almost intact,
it leaves the power of big money and multinational corporations towering over
an emasculated state with not enough resources to resist it, and this would
continue fostering insane competition (between companies, but even more harmful
between countries and between classes), ever more crazy business cycles, ever
growing exploitation of workers and ever more despoliation of shrinking natural
resources. From the right I would expect to hear (as we are already hearing)
how it is just unaffordable (something I basically have already answered in this
post: UBI cost in a European welfarist State),
specially given the “phone call effect” that would attract countless (mostly
poor) immigrants to whatever political entity that is so foolish as to establish
such a luring scheme especially apt for freeloaders and every kind of parasite.
The answer to those objections will be explored in further posts, suffice it to
say now that none of them seems likely to carry much weight.
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