Everybody
seem to agree we live in times where partisanship and enmity between political
factions have reached unprecedented levels. Even where traditional parties are
experiencing significant voters’ disaffection (like in Italy, Greece and Spain)
and new parties have surged to occupy a political space they saw as
insufficiently represented, they have done so along very recognizable
conservative/ progressive (or right/ left) lines. There is an apparently greater
than ever inability for the heads of each faction to walk in the other faction’s
shoes that constitutes the basis for collaboration and finding of common ground,
and thus the vitriol and condemnation that is spewed towards the opposite side
of the proverbial aisle seems to mount day to day.
I believe
this doesn’t need to be so, and I can still remember how towards the end of the
last century the talk of the sociologists was rather about the “end of
ideologies”, and how after the crumbling of the communist model political
discussion would turn more technocratic and devoid of passion, as politicians
would discuss about fringe issues, whilst they kept a basic agreement about how
to organize society, sharing a core of ideas that would be beyond discussion
(the candidates for those ideas were things like representative democracy, the
rule of law, private property widely
recognized, and a certain amount of redistributive taxation so the state had
enough resources to ensure a modicum of dignity for everybody, regardless of
merit or social circumstances, through the provision of free or very cheap
health, education and old age pensions). In those times, that now seem so
distant, the far right all but disappeared in most Western societies (outside
of some skinhead and white nationalist movements in Anglo-Saxon countries, and Nazi
sympathizers in Germany that were never that much popular), and although there
were some old dyed in the wool leftists and anarchists, you probably could
count ‘em with the fingers of a single hand. There were some countercultural
elements that seemed to be still hung-over since the late 79’s and the only
serious contender for a coherent narrative outside the mainstream was the
environmental movement, that every now and then seemed to toy with achieving
mass appeal and being close to be a deciding force in some parliament or other where they could break a potential stalemate
between the traditional parties, and even have some governing responsibility.
Back then, alternating parties from one sign and the other seemed like a normal
thing, almost a desirable built-in trait of the system, and when the party you
less identified with won the elections you just assumed you would live a little
worse than it would have been the case (most people assume the party not of
their choice would be a somewhat worse steward of the economy, and that
stewardship of the economy was really the big deciding factor on who to vote
for), but that things would sort themselves out in the medium terms without
much fuss.
Now if we
take a look at what candidates say during the most recent (or still ongoing)
political campaigns we can identify a clear difference. In Spain the governing
party declares that an opposition win would spell the death of the country (as
supposedly anybody but them would cave in to the demands of the separatist
Catalonians they have done more than anybody else to encourage) and the
triggering of a recession more severe than the one started in 2008 (which
served to propel them to power). In Greece each party accused the other of
certain doom, social collapse, and the expulsion from the European Union (never
mind that the electorate had chosen a few weeks before to reject a set of
bailout conditions that should have meant the same automatic expulsion they
suddenly were eager to avoid, and that nevertheless the same party that
championed that rejection was now campaigning to avoid it). In the USA… what
should we say of the USA? As in so many other fields, they seem to lead the
rest of the world in the level of hate and spite each side of the political
spectrum holds for the other side. We are hearing, and we will hear it more as
the electoral cycle advances (and there are still almost thirteen months to go
until they finally vote, in their interminable electioneering!) from each faction that if the other side wins
every kind of unspeakable horrors will befall the nation: the end of the American
dream! The end of American world hegemony! (probably the first somehow requires
the second). The fall of the republic in the hands of an imperial presidency!
The imposition of tyranny from a communistic world government led by the UN
after they forcibly take away every law abiding citizen’s guns! The loss of any
value, and all that is sacred! The forbidding of any public display of
religious faith, and the prosecution of religious practice! The imposition of
religious belief and of fundamentalist morals! The prohibition of abortion
(depriving women of the right to decide over their own sexuality and forcing
them back to the home and out of the labor force where they could be legally
raped by their husbands)! The continuance of the massacre of innocent fetuses
to sell their organs for profit! One yearns for the time when the disagreement
were about a few percentage points on the marginal tax rate, the degree of
reduction of the defense budget or the amount of federal deficit that was wise
to reach on a certain year.
The most
frequent explanation you can find for these apparently absurd levels of
polarization have to do with the advent of the Internet, that allows people to
get their news and with them their whole worldview from self-chosen, self-segregating
sources in a perennial self-reinforcing
feedback loop that makes them more and more extremist, and also forces them
unconsciously to march in lockstep with
the rest of the members of their particular tribe, so what used to be loosely
defined groupings of people that intermingled with each other, so each member
was frequently exposed to the thinking and opinions of the other side has
become a couple of perfectly defined, zero overlap couple of groups, each of
which has exactly zero exposure to the other, and is thus free to straw man
their every position, to expose it to ridicule, make a cartoon of it and mercilessly
mock it and degrade every person that entertains it for being stupid enough not
to see it for the obvious idiocy it is (see Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly
describing any liberal position, or alternatively Bill Maher or Paul Krugman
describing a conservative one, although you may also notice a significant
difference both in tone and substance between both camps). I do recognize that internet
has been a tool for people cherry-picking the sources that provide them not
with the most accurate, or most impartial view of what’s going on in the world,
but with the one that better tracks with their pre-defined set of preferences,
which in turn help to steer those preferences towards more extreme, more insular
and more insulated positions. But I’m not sure that is the whole story.
There are a
number of complementary narratives, from highlighting the role of fear of the
other side (in this article in Vox: Partisanship driven by fear)
or by tying the sense of belonging to certain political faction to some deep
seated feature of every voter’s personality (which would make it like belonging
by choice to a certain “tribe”, as brilliantly described by the always dazzling
Scott Alexander in his Slate Star Codex: I can tolerate enything but the outgroup
where he describes the “Blue Tribe” and the “Red Tribe”, each seeing the there
as their outgroup, and thus using them to define themselves in reverse, in the
process making them more a subject of scorn and derision) which are
illuminating to a certain extent, but I would like to highlight a different
aspect that I think has been neglected so far. What I will argue (surprise,
surprise!) is that in a society engineered to compete against others (both in
the ability to produce material goods and to keep powerful armies, which are
but two aspects of the same process) and which has been selected as the most
able to win that competition but then has run out of “enemies” (alternative,
viable societies) that can compete along those terms (it is irrelevant for the
argument if there is indeed any other term on which they could compete, or pose
a substantial threat to the society we are talking about) has no option but to
turn its energies against itself, and to look within its own ranks the enemies
that it has successfully primed its citizens to seek out and obliterate. The
form that “turning against itself” takes is the increased intragrupal
competition we see in Western societies that are at the top of the economic
food chain (China, India and Latin America still have a lot of catch up in
which they can exert their energies, although I see very worrisome signs both
in Brazil and Argentina that they are learning fast the worst aspects of Northern
hemisphere partisanship, without having attained the necessary level of
affluence… thanks God it has not happened so far in China), that have ended
segregating themselves by ideology, and devoting their energies in an increasingly
vicious manner against the part of themselves that is not fully aligned with a
certain set of ideas that naturally cluster together.
Let’s recap
for a moment how we got to our current predicament. Remember that since the
beginning of last century we live in societies that impose in their members the
following credo (already pretty familiar for any regular reader of this blog):
1. The goal of life is to satisfy
desires
2. The position in the social hierarchy
of every person is defined by how many material goods and services exchangeable
in a market he or she can exclusively command (that is, by how much money he or
she has)
3. The only desire that counts is to
advance in the social hierarchy
The credo was
firmly established in the West (as reflected in the works of Freud, who
provided us with the canonical formulation of the 3rd rule) between
the 1st and the 2nd World Wars, it started to be extended
after the victory of the allies in the second conflict, and completed its
expansion after the fall of communism in the 90’s (funnily enough, the
communist countries adhered to a slightly different set of rules, the only
difference being in the 2nd one, how the position in the social hierarchy
was determined, which marked their dominant reason as bureaucratic rather than
desiderative… the fun comes from the fact that it was Karl Marx, from which
they supposedly derive their inspiration, who formulated the canonical
expression of just the rule they chose not to follow, but that would be the
subject of a separate post). As I’ve stated elsewhere, such credo is disastrous
for the individual, but it has remained in force because it made the societies
that most eagerly adopted it extraordinarily successful. So successful indeed
that any society that showed to be somehow more lackadaisical in its adoption
was either absorbed (and remade on the absorber’s image) or militarily invaded
by the hegemon or its followers.
So competition
between different societies (adhering to the desiderative credo with different
degrees of enthusiasm) kept the system going and provided it with the ultimate
justification: If somebody dared to question why keep on running the rat race,
putting all of their effort to keep up with the Joneses and giving the maximum
recognition to those that amassed the vastest fortunes, everybody else could
point to the outer enemies and say “do you want to be like that? No? then shut
up and keep running/ struggling, giving it your best”, and it is that mentality
that kept the discussion between mainstream political parties limited to
economic details, as anybody that wanted to expand it so things like the
development model, the need to preserve the environment or to significantly
alter the incentives so they were shifted from reckless competition to
something more cooperative was immediately dubbed a sellout to the commies, a “fellow
traveler” (something that had some grain of truth, as it was found after their Glasnost that the Soviets subsidized
indeed some leftwing parties and individuals in the West) and thus someone
disqualified to partake of civilized discourse and serious decision making. A
somewhat cartoonish “other” (in Alexander’s terminology, an “outgroup”) was
absolutely required to provide the ultimate rebuff to anybody that wanted to
question the dominant reason, and thus to reinforce its commandments and keep
the whole thing going, the happiness of the citizenry be damned. We can say in
its defense that during the period between 1950 and 2008 it kept the greatest
growth rates recorded in human history (we are talking of the growth in the
ability to produce material goods and exchange marketable services, which
correlate only weakly with other metrics of well being), more than trebling per
capita GDP (from 16,000 USD in 1952 to roughly 50,000 USD in 2015, both
measured in 2009 dollars) and substantially increasing life expectancy,
comfort, security and even freedom (for substantial parts of humanity).
Admitting then
that many things got substantially better thanks to the drive to accumulate
priced thingies and compete with each other, I still maintain that intersocial
competition was crucial for the system. Now in the 90’s something funny
happened: intense intersocial competition came to an end, as the whole world ended
up embracing the same credo, and sharing the same dominant reason. Some nations
were more liberal, some were more authoritarian. Some more religious and some
more secular. Some more individualistic (libertarian?) and some more statist.
But it was more and more difficult to shut up people that may propose to
substantially rewrite the basic assumptions of how life should be lived with
the previous “do you want to be like “those guys” out there?” when those guys
are the Danes (a pretty happy, quite rational bunch, however much American
conservatives may cringe at them) or the French (great wine and food!) or even
the Chinese, once they have transitioned to a basically market driven economy
and the only thing you can truly criticize them for is being better at this
capitalism thing than their original inventors. Of course you do have some
fringe actors that have espoused the three commandments much less
enthusiastically if at all (I’m not saying we have reached “the end of history”
yet), but they are essentially basket cases yearning to be admitted in the
concert of civilized nations once they get rid of the more or less mad leaders
that are preventing them from doing so (Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and
Sudan just do not have the size or level of success at our own game to provide
a credible alternative to our currently dominant value system, as much as
neoconservatives in the USA would like to present them as so). So how do you
keep the people “rowing in the same direction”, how do you keep coordinating
the differing interests of the myriad subgroups that form each advanced society
once the main rationale for their sacrifice (“just keep at it or we will be defeated
and our values, our own identity, will be erased from the history books”) is
gone? Of course, you recreate the external threat within yourself, and
exacerbate what were rather puny differences until they seem truly essential,
existentially defining ones. If they are secular we are religious. If they are
tolerant of homosexuals we hate fags. If they like innovation we stand for
tradition. If they think there should be more redistribution of riches we
defend huge inequality (and justify it appealing to merit, desert and reward)…
But there is
a problem with such construction. In the old days the “other side” operated from
a substantially different set of values (in the case of the communist their way
of recognizing social position, by adherence to the increasingly metaphysical “party
line”, instead of by ability to amass money, led to a wildly inefficient set of
incentives that ended costing them too much in terms of material and
technological progress) that ensured that the group with the set of values
better attuned to produce more material goods (us) would indeed outcompete
them. But the way I see it, both groups within today’s societies operate from
the exact same set of values. As much as people on the left may claim they are
more communitarian, or the people on the right claim they are more for traditional
values (both sound superficially as less materialistic) they share their strict
adherence to the three original commandments (while of course each individual
on both sides would loudly reject them and proclaim their opposition to such
patently absurd rules), and it is very unclear that their purported differences
(that seem to me to have to do more with group identification –cheap ways to
signal their belonging to a group rather than the other than with any deep commitment
to lead a significantly different life, ruled by a significantly different set
of rules) may give any of them any advantage.
That may mean
that we are in a stable equilibrium where we are condemned to a perpetual
shouting match between irreconcilable factions ever more despising of each
other, ever more scared of the other holding power and rolling back any
measures towards the “good society” they may have taken in previous electoral
cycles, ever more worked up about the other half of their own nation (with
which they interact less and less, to the point of total exclusion) but unable
to subdue each other or to convince each other. Until things finally break up
and both factions finally decide they can not stand each other and rather
prefer to create distinct polities. Is such creation possible peacefully? I
have my doubts, but that would be the subject for another post.